We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. Results: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil’s municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. Conclusion: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.
Autoria: Marcos R. Gonzaga, Bernardo L. Queiroz, Flávio H.M.A. Freire, José H.C. Monteiro-da-Silva, Everton E.C. Lima, Walter P. Silva-Júnior, Victor H. D. Diógenes, Renzo Joel Flores Ortiz, Lilia C. C. da Costa, Elzo Júnior, Maria Yury Ichihara, Camila S. S. Teixeira, Flávia Jôse Alves, Aline dos Santos Rocha, Andrêa Ferreira, Mauricio Barreto, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Ruth Dundas, Alastair Leyland.
Periódico: Population Health Metrics
Ano de publicação: 2024